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On December 5th Toll Brothers reported 4th Quarter Earnings and the results were not exactly pretty. Highlights BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? 'In tough times, our team produced our fifteenth consecutive year of record revenues and our second highest annual profits. These accomplishments are exceptional, considering the significant rise in cancellations, and are a tribute to our associates' commitment and hard work. Fifteen months into the current slowdown, we may be seeing a floor in some markets where deposits and traffic, although erratic from week to week, seem to be dancing on the bottom or slightly above. As we previously announced, this quarter's results were negatively impacted by our higher than normal 585 cancellations. With these cancellations creating unintended specs, we could face increasing margin pressure as we seek to move these homes. Right now is a great time ...

Check out the descending triangle formation on the Yen. Click on chart for a better view. At the February 2005 peak in the Yen, the then current rage was that Buffett and Gates were short the dollar. The Yen then proceeded to collapse for two full years. Now after that collapse, here are a few comments from just the past several days.'Worries about the end of the carry trade are absolute nonsense' according to Stephen Massocca, president and head of trading at Pacific Growth Equities as attributed by MarketWatch.'There are really few reasons to extend the yen rally. The economic backdrop of the carry trade hasn't changed. Japan still has low interest rates' said David Watt, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets Inc. in Toronto, a unit of Canada's biggest bank by assets. That last quote is from Yen Poised for Best Week Since 2005 on Exit From Carry Trades. Following are a few other opinions from the same article.

I had a brief conversation with Mike Morgan on Saturday about what might happen should Levitt declare bankruptcy. Here is the background story...Fort Lauderdale-based Levitt and Sons halts all work on houses. BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? I had a brief conversation with Mike Morgan on Saturday about what might happen should Levitt declare bankruptcy. Here is the background story... Levitt and Sons, the cash-strapped Fort Lauderdale company trying to survive the housing slump, said Thursday it has temporarily stopped building houses as it tries to restructure its debt. My Comment: Inconvenience?! Putting down 10%-20% on a house and having the builder walk away in bankruptcy is merely 'inconvenient'? 'I'm up in the air,' said Angelo Palermo, 69, who's renting an apartment in Pembroke Pines while waiting for his $380,000 house in Port St. Lucie to be finished. 'Thi...

BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? New Century Financial Corp. said late Friday that it's facing a federal criminal probe and will likely breach a major lending covenant with its financial backers, bringing into question the survival of the second-largest U. S. subprime-mortgage lender. The U. S. Attorney's Office for the Central District of California is conducting a federal criminal inquiry into trading in New Century securities as well as accounting errors, the company wrote in a regulatory filing late Friday. The Securities and Exchange Commission also is looking into the company, as is the regulatory arm of the New York Stock Exchange, New Century disclosed. The company added that it is complying with all three inquiries. The mortgage lender said it expects that it won't report at least $1 of net income for the two quarters ended Dec. 31, as stipulated in covenants with its len...

BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? The interest rate charged for one - year adjustable loans jumped last week by the most since the Mortgage Bankers Association began keeping records in 1996. The report demonstrates the difficulty some home buyers face in securing affordable financing. Banks, forced to hold loans rather than resell them as securities because demand has dried up, are charging higher rates for riskier mortgages. The housing slump will worsen as banks restrict the availability of credit and falling real - estate prices prevent owners from tapping home equity for extra spending money, economists said. 'If rates go up and credit gets tighter, that is going to lead to a drop in demand on top of what we have already seen,' said Abiel Reinhart, an economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York. 'That is going to have an adverse impact' on the economy through the firs...

John Doe on the Southern California Real Estate Bubble Crash Blog made an interesting post about Burn Rates. BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? Over the past few days, we've had the chance to review the proverbial Canary in the Coalmine, San Diego. It doesn't look good. Inventory has been continuing its parabolic rise. It surpassed its all-time record set in July 1995 of 19,250 some time late last month. The population adjusted inventory record will likely be surpassed within 1 month, give or take a few weeks. Median prices have been flat for at least a year, with considerable weakness shown in recent months that show down since summer last year. Housing analysts agree that houses are not like stocks, and prices will not go down because they have intrinsic value that is not like a piece of paper like stocks. True, houses are not like stocks in every way, but a market is still a market, ...